Michael Lewis said this quote

“ Crucial decisions are made, today as thousands of years ago, in terms of the intuitive guesses and preferences of a few men in positions of authority...[it is] quite likely that the fate of entire societies may be sealed by a series of avoidable mistakes committed by their leaders. ”

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The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours

~ Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis Creativity Discovery Innovation Productivity Tversky

A lot of what people did and said when they predicted things, Morey now realized, was phony: pretending to know things rather than actually knowing things. There were a great many interesting questions in the world to which the only honest answer was, It's impossible to know for sure.

~ Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis Thinking Uncertainty

After seeing a movie that dramatizes nuclear war, they worried more about nuclear war; indeed, they felt that it was more likely to happen. The sheer volatility of people's judgement of the odds--their sense of the odds could be changed by two hours in a movie theater--told you something about the reliability of the mechanism that judged those odds.

~ Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis Bias Decision Making Kahneman Recency Bias Thinking Tversky

Stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them...what people remember about the past, [Kahneman and Tversky] suggested, is likely to warp their judgement of the future. We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible, because we are unable to imagine any chain of events that could cause it to occur. The defect, often, is in our imagination.

~ Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis Bias Decision Making Kahneman Pattern Recognition Thinking Tversky