“ Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge. ”
Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.
~ Nate Silver
In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.
Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.
...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.
